NBA Draft - What is the best pick to have?

With the NBA Draft Lottery behind us and the actual NBA Draft a few days away I got to thinking.  What are the advantages of one draft pick over another?  Which pick has proved to be the most successful?  Which draft pick do I want for my team based on historical data?  Is there any benefit to winning the NBA Draft Lottery?  So, I started digging.  I went back through each draft since 1985 (the infamous Patrick Ewing lottery) to see just how well each pick has done. 

Comparing draft picks is difficult.  Positions are inherently different.  Scoring points is different than grabbing rebounds or dropping assists.  Teams have different philosophies that might not show off a certain players talents.  Injuries are always a menacing specter.  And of course some guys are simply more hype than talent.  Later picks go to better teams and might not ever get playing time, earlier picks my be pushed too hard too early and never round out before they are discarded.  There is no real good apples-to-apples comparison.  So, I decided to use a unit that is somewhat arbitrary, sometimes outright wrong, but overall is a good way to see how a draft pick panned out: All-Star appearances.  It ain't perfect, but it is as good a benchmark to having the NBA seal of approval as there is out there. 

This is all based off of past numbers, so it is in no way a prediction of how things will go in the future, but it does give us a sense of what is available and what your chances are of picking up a franchise type player.  Combing through the numbers I focused on 3 main questions: What percentage of the time has pick X produced an All-Star (what are the odds of getting an All-Star)?  How many All-Star appearances does pick X average (what should a team expect from their pick position)?  What pick has the most bang for the buck (what pick has had the best outcome IF a team does get an All-Star with that pick)?

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NBA Draft - Draft Pick All-Star Rate

This is a statistical view of how often a certain pick in the NBA Draft has produced an All-Star.  Starting with the first NBA Draft Lottery in 1985, the top-30 picks (not always first round picks some have been added through expansion over the years) have been counted and divided over time (27 years).  Ties were given to lower draft picks because of the value associated with picking later (i.e. later picks have a lower pay scale which is an advantage to the team's salary cap).  Here is the full list by All-Star Rate (ASR):

1. Pick #1 - 18/27 - 67%
2. Pick #3 - 12/27 - 44%
3. Pick #5 - 10/27 - 37%
4. Pick #4 - 10/27 - 37%
5. Pick #2 - 9/27 - 33%
6. Pick #10 - 6/27 - 22%
7. Pick #9 - 6/27 - 22%
8. Pick #6 - 6/27 - 22%
9. Pick #18 - 5/27 - 19%
10. Pick #24 - 4/27 - 15%
11. Pick #17 - 4/27 - 15%
12. Pick #11 - 4/27 - 15%
13. Pick #7 - 4/27 - 15%
14. Pick #21 - 3/27 - 11%
15. Pick #16 - 3/27 - 11%
16. Pick #14 - 3/27 - 11%
17. Pick #13 - 3/27 - 11%
18. Pick #25 - 2/27 - 7%
19. Pick #20 - 2/27 - 7%
20. Pick #19 - 2/27 - 7%
21. Pick #8 - 2/27 - 7%
22. Pick # 30 - 1/27 - 4%
23. Pick #29 - 1/27 - 4%
24. Pick #28 - 1/27 - 4%
25. Pick #27 - 1/27 - 4%
26. Pick #26 - 1/27 - 4%
27. Pick #23 - 1/27 - 4%
28. Pick #22 - 1/27 - 4%
29. Pick #15 - 1/27 - 4%
30. Pick #12 - 1/27 - 4%

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NBA Draft - Which Pick Has the Most All-Star Appearances

This is a list breaking out how many All-Star Appearances (APAs) each draft pick has averaged since the first NBA Draft Lottery in 1985.  Think of it as the potency of a certain draft pick.  How many APAs on average do those draft picks end up bringing to a team.  So, Pick #1 with an average of 3.96 means a team picking in that position should expect (according to historical statistics) around 4 ASAs from their new draftee.  This is the list according to average ASAs:

1. Pick #1 - 107/27 = 3.96
2. Pick #5 - 58/27 = 2.14
3. Pick #3 - 38/27 = 1.41
4. Pick #2 - 36/27 = 1.33
5. Pick #4 - 35/27 = 1.29
6. Pick #9 - 30/27 = 1.11
7. Pick #13 - 29/27 = 1.07
8. Pick #10 - 23/27 = 0.85
9. Pick #17 - 14/27 = 0.52
10. Pick #7 - 12/27 = 0.44
11. Pick #14 - 11/27 = 0.41
12. Pick #18 - 11/27 = 0.41
13. Pick #6 - 10/27 = 0.37
14. Pick #11 - 10/27 = 0.37
15. Pick #15 - 8/27 = 0.30
16. Pick #24 - 8/27 = 0.30
17. Pick #8 - 7/27 = 0.26
18. Pick #21 - 6/27 = 0.22
19. Pick #25 - 5/27 = 0.18
20. Pick #28 - 4/27 = 0.15
21. Pick #16 - 3/27 = 0.11
22. Pick #20 - 3/27 = 0.11
23. Pick #19 - 2/27 = 0.07
24. Pick #27 - 2/27 = 0.07
25. Pick #12 - 1/27 = 0.04
26. Pick #22 - 1/27 = 0.04
27. Pick #23 - 1/27 = 0.04
28. Pick #26 - 1/27 = 0.04
29. Pick #29 - 1/27 = 0.04
30. Pick #30 - 1/27 = 0.04

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NBA Draft - Which Pick has the Most Bang for the Buck?

This list shows which draft picks garner the most All-Star Appearances (ASAs) assuming the pick does in fact end up being an All-Star.  For example, in the 27 years since the Draft Lottery began the #13 pick has had 3 All-Stars.  Now, two of those All-Stars are Kobe Bryant and Karl Malone, who have had 14 ASAs each.  Throw in Dale Davis' 2000 ASA, and the #13 pick has 29 total ASAs.  Discounting the 24 years that the #13 pick didn't result in an All-Star you get 29/3 = 9.67.  So, the times that a team has in fact drafted an All-Star at the #13 pick, they got 9.67 ASAs out of them.  It is sort of a nonsense stat, but it is kind of fun to think about.  When debating how valuable one draft pick is over another, it is nice to know that twice a perennial All-Star and Hall-of-Famer was picked with, say, the 13th pick.  We get this from dividing total number of ASAs from each pick by the total number of All-Stars.  So which picks offer the best bang for the buck?

1. Pick #13 - 29/3 - 9.67 - Karl Malone (14), Kobe Bryant (14)
2. Pick # 15 - 8/1 - 8.00 - All from Steve Nash
3. Pick #1 - 18/107 - 5.94 - Shaq (15)
4. Pick #5 - 58/10 - 5.80 - Kevin Garnett (14)
5. Pick #9 - 30/6 - 5.00 - Dirk Nowitzki (11)
6. Pick #2 - 36/9 - 4.00 - Jason Kidd (10), Gary Payton (9)
7. Pick #28 - 4/1 - 4.00 - All From Tony Parker
8. Pick #10 - 23/6 - 3.83 - Paul Pierce (10)
9. Pick #14 - 11/3 - 3.67 - Tim Hardaway (5)
10. Pick #4 - 35/10 - 3.50 - Dikembe Mutombo (8), Chris Bosh (7)
11. Pick #17 - 14/4 - 3.50 - Jermaine O'Neal (6), Shawn Kemp (6)
12. Pick #8 - 7/2 - 3.50 - Detlef Schrempf (3), Vin Baker (4)
13. Pick #3 - 38/12 - 3.17 - Grant Hill (7)
14. Pick #7 - 12/4 - 3.00 - Chris Mullen (5)
15. Pick #11 - 10/4 - 2.50 - Reggie Miller (5)
16. Pick #25 - 5/2 - 2.50 - Mark Price (4) (second round pick)
17. Pick #18 - 11/5 - 2.20 - Joe Dumars (6)
18. Pick #24 - 8/4 - 2.00 - Latrell Spreewell (4)
19. Pick #21 - 6/3 - 2.00 - Rajon Rondo (3)
20. Pick #27 - 2/1 - 2.00 - All from Dennis Rodman (second round pick)
21. Pick #6 - 10/6 - 1.67 - Antoine Walker (3), Brandon Roy (3)
22. Pick #20 - 3/2 - 1.50 - Zydrunas Ilgauskas (2)
23. Pick #16 - 3/3 - 1.00 - Dana Barros, Chris Gatling, Ron Artest
24. Pick #19 - 2/2 - 1.00 - Jamaal Magloire, Zach Randolph
25. Pick #12 - 1/1 -1.00 - Mookie Blaylock
26. Pick #22 - 1/1 - 1.00 - Reggie Lewis
27. Pick #23 - 1/1 - 1.00 - A.C. Green
28. Pick #26 - 1/1 - 1.00 - Vlade Divac
29. Pick #29 - 1/1 - 1.00 - Josh Howard
30. Pick #30 - 1/1 - 1.00 - David Lee

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet 3.0 (Top 250 Update)

Most drafts will be over the next week or so.  Here is the Top 250 players taking into account Fantasy Value, Average Draft Position, Strength of Schedule, and Free Agency Aquisitions.  Best of luck this year...

1. Adrian Peterson- RB, MIN
2. Arian Foster- RB, HOU
3. Chris Johnson- RB, TEN
4. Ray Rice- RB, BAL
5. Jamaal Charles- RB, KC
6. LeSean McCoy- RB, PHI
7. Andre Johnson- WR, HOU
8. Maurice Jones-Drew- RB, JAX
9. Roddy White- WR, ATL
10. Darren McFadden- RB, OAK

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What's in a name? (who to pick, and who not to pick in your 2011 Fantasy Football Draft)

We've all done it.  At a cocktail party, or in class sometime, or just bumping in to someone at the mall or on the street.  You search back through your entire memory and you simply can not remember the other persons name.  It is one of those moments that has the unique ability to make you feel stupid, thoughtless, and rude all at the same time.  It's a bummer man.

When it comes to your fantasy football draft* this simple mistake can not only be embarrassing, but it can spell disaster for your team before kick off of the first game.  There is no worse feeling than realizing that your latest pick not only retired 3 years ago, but the guy you thought you were picking was selected 3rd overall and you never really had a shot at him in the first place.  Basically, you need to know who is on your players list, and the differences between players.

But they don't make it easy.  There are 5 guys named Ryan in the Top 250, and 4 of them are running backs.  Who ever thought there would be deux hommes named Pierre in the NFL?  Why are there more players named Jacoby than the more traditional Jacob?  Is it any wonder that over two decades after everyone wanted to "Be Like Mike" there are 3 dudes named Jordan on the list?  And let's not forget there are 2 guys named Steve Smith, and another 2 named Mike Williams, and all 4 of them are wide receivers.

So, here are a few things to keep in mind to hopefully differentiate between certain players you do or do not want on your team:

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Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet 2.0 (Top 250 updated 8/9/11)

Well, we now have the lockout officially behind us.  And we are now hours not days away from actual live action football (if you consider pre-season actual football).  We now know where most free agents are going to be playing.  And for a few unfortunate injured players (10 blown achilles so far), we know who will not be playing this season.  There is still a long way till the season starts and injuries, free agency, and depth charts are all going to change...  but here is the latest Draft Cheat Sheet as of 8/9/11:

1. Arian Foster, HOU- RB
2. Ray Rice, BAL- RB
3. Chris Johnson, TEN- RB
4. Adrian Peterson, MIN- RB
5. Jamaal Charles, KC-RB
6. LeSean McCoy, PHI- RB
7. Andre Johnson, HOU- WR
8. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX-RB
9. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT-RB
10. Aaron Rodgers, GB- QB

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Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet (1.1)

So, it looks like we ARE going to have football this year.  The lockout for all intents and purposes is over (keep your fingers crossed ).  If things go as planned camps and free agency will start next Wednesday (7/27).  So, everything will change once players start moving to different teams.  But, here is the latest 2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet:

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Willie Lyles vs. The Big Lebowski

For those college football fans out there I am sure by now you have heard the name Willie Lyles.  He has been all over ESPN and sports talk radio explaining his side of an NCAA investigation of improprieties by The University of Oregon  in the recruitment of some players (RB Lache Seastrunk in particular).  Real quick, here are the main points. 

1. Willie Lyles knows and "mentors" many high school football players in Texas (RB Lache Seastrunk was one of these players)
2. Willie Lyles also runs a recruitment service, where he provides footage and stats of players to college football programs for a fee
3. Lache Seastrunk signed to play football at the University of Oregon
4. The University of Oregon paid Willie Lyles $25,000
5. The University of Oregon did not ask for any footage or stats for a year after the payment to Willie Lyles
6. It is unclear if Lyles was paid for his recruitment service or if, in his roll as a mentor, he "steered" players to the University of Oregon for money
7. Steering players to a specific school for pay, at best designates someone as an employee of the university which is highly regulated and requires transparency, and at worst designates them as a booster, and recruitment by boosters is a big no-no in the eyes of the NCAA
8. There are no allegations that any student athlete was paid to go to the University of Oregon
9. Willie Lyles denies that he steered any students to any school
10. Lache Seastrunk "Redshirted" last year, meaning he practiced and was on the team but never played in a game, so he retains his 4 years of college eligibility
11. The University of Oregon is cooperating with the NCAA investigation and has made no further statements on the subject, and the silence is deafening

Ok, those are "the facts" up to now.  NCAA investigations being as they are, this issue is going to be out there for a while and we might not see a resolution for months or years.  So in the mean time, why not have some fun with it...?

YouTube legend and friend of The Polymouth keeerrrttt has put together some clips of various news outlets discussing the situation.  And since all things must and do relate back to The Big Lebowski, he created a hilarious comparison of the two.  It is a little long, but well worth it (keep in mind The Big Lebowski has some rather coarse language, and might not be appropriate for the office or around children).  Take a look...  Willie Lyles vs. The Big Lebowski

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2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet (1.0)

All his rowdy friends play Fantasy Football

This may be a little early considering the NFL hasn't even ended it's lockout, and until that happens free agency can't begin nor can teams trade players.  Meaning we have no idea when the NFL season will kickoff nor who will be playing for which teams.  But, we are half way through July and if you play Fantasy Football your mind is probably already wandering to the gridiron like those poor children who have to sit at home and practice piano, violin, or some such parentally deemed endeavor while their friends all play outside mere paces away with nothing but a window pane keeping them from the fun.  Basically, to answer Hank Williams Jr.: yes, we are ready for some football!  At least some small semblance of something sort of resembling a hint of a whisper of a novelty pass time generally related to football.

With that in mind, we now have Version 1.0 of the 2011 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet.  This will change.  Quite drastically I imagine.  But it is a good jumping off point for the 2011 Fantasy Football Season.  I hope it helps, and good luck... (and if you're in my Fantasy Football league read no further)

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