NBA Draft - What is the best pick to have?

With the NBA Draft Lottery behind us and the actual NBA Draft a few days away I got to thinking.  What are the advantages of one draft pick over another?  Which pick has proved to be the most successful?  Which draft pick do I want for my team based on historical data?  Is there any benefit to winning the NBA Draft Lottery?  So, I started digging.  I went back through each draft since 1985 (the infamous Patrick Ewing lottery) to see just how well each pick has done. 

Comparing draft picks is difficult.  Positions are inherently different.  Scoring points is different than grabbing rebounds or dropping assists.  Teams have different philosophies that might not show off a certain players talents.  Injuries are always a menacing specter.  And of course some guys are simply more hype than talent.  Later picks go to better teams and might not ever get playing time, earlier picks my be pushed too hard too early and never round out before they are discarded.  There is no real good apples-to-apples comparison.  So, I decided to use a unit that is somewhat arbitrary, sometimes outright wrong, but overall is a good way to see how a draft pick panned out: All-Star appearances.  It ain't perfect, but it is as good a benchmark to having the NBA seal of approval as there is out there. 

This is all based off of past numbers, so it is in no way a prediction of how things will go in the future, but it does give us a sense of what is available and what your chances are of picking up a franchise type player.  Combing through the numbers I focused on 3 main questions: What percentage of the time has pick X produced an All-Star (what are the odds of getting an All-Star)?  How many All-Star appearances does pick X average (what should a team expect from their pick position)?  What pick has the most bang for the buck (what pick has had the best outcome IF a team does get an All-Star with that pick)?

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