NBA Draft - What is the best pick to have?

With the NBA Draft Lottery behind us and the actual NBA Draft a few days away I got to thinking.  What are the advantages of one draft pick over another?  Which pick has proved to be the most successful?  Which draft pick do I want for my team based on historical data?  Is there any benefit to winning the NBA Draft Lottery?  So, I started digging.  I went back through each draft since 1985 (the infamous Patrick Ewing lottery) to see just how well each pick has done. 

Comparing draft picks is difficult.  Positions are inherently different.  Scoring points is different than grabbing rebounds or dropping assists.  Teams have different philosophies that might not show off a certain players talents.  Injuries are always a menacing specter.  And of course some guys are simply more hype than talent.  Later picks go to better teams and might not ever get playing time, earlier picks my be pushed too hard too early and never round out before they are discarded.  There is no real good apples-to-apples comparison.  So, I decided to use a unit that is somewhat arbitrary, sometimes outright wrong, but overall is a good way to see how a draft pick panned out: All-Star appearances.  It ain't perfect, but it is as good a benchmark to having the NBA seal of approval as there is out there. 

This is all based off of past numbers, so it is in no way a prediction of how things will go in the future, but it does give us a sense of what is available and what your chances are of picking up a franchise type player.  Combing through the numbers I focused on 3 main questions: What percentage of the time has pick X produced an All-Star (what are the odds of getting an All-Star)?  How many All-Star appearances does pick X average (what should a team expect from their pick position)?  What pick has the most bang for the buck (what pick has had the best outcome IF a team does get an All-Star with that pick)?

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NBA Draft - Draft Pick All-Star Rate

This is a statistical view of how often a certain pick in the NBA Draft has produced an All-Star.  Starting with the first NBA Draft Lottery in 1985, the top-30 picks (not always first round picks some have been added through expansion over the years) have been counted and divided over time (27 years).  Ties were given to lower draft picks because of the value associated with picking later (i.e. later picks have a lower pay scale which is an advantage to the team's salary cap).  Here is the full list by All-Star Rate (ASR):

1. Pick #1 - 18/27 - 67%
2. Pick #3 - 12/27 - 44%
3. Pick #5 - 10/27 - 37%
4. Pick #4 - 10/27 - 37%
5. Pick #2 - 9/27 - 33%
6. Pick #10 - 6/27 - 22%
7. Pick #9 - 6/27 - 22%
8. Pick #6 - 6/27 - 22%
9. Pick #18 - 5/27 - 19%
10. Pick #24 - 4/27 - 15%
11. Pick #17 - 4/27 - 15%
12. Pick #11 - 4/27 - 15%
13. Pick #7 - 4/27 - 15%
14. Pick #21 - 3/27 - 11%
15. Pick #16 - 3/27 - 11%
16. Pick #14 - 3/27 - 11%
17. Pick #13 - 3/27 - 11%
18. Pick #25 - 2/27 - 7%
19. Pick #20 - 2/27 - 7%
20. Pick #19 - 2/27 - 7%
21. Pick #8 - 2/27 - 7%
22. Pick # 30 - 1/27 - 4%
23. Pick #29 - 1/27 - 4%
24. Pick #28 - 1/27 - 4%
25. Pick #27 - 1/27 - 4%
26. Pick #26 - 1/27 - 4%
27. Pick #23 - 1/27 - 4%
28. Pick #22 - 1/27 - 4%
29. Pick #15 - 1/27 - 4%
30. Pick #12 - 1/27 - 4%

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NBA Draft - Which Pick Has the Most All-Star Appearances

This is a list breaking out how many All-Star Appearances (APAs) each draft pick has averaged since the first NBA Draft Lottery in 1985.  Think of it as the potency of a certain draft pick.  How many APAs on average do those draft picks end up bringing to a team.  So, Pick #1 with an average of 3.96 means a team picking in that position should expect (according to historical statistics) around 4 ASAs from their new draftee.  This is the list according to average ASAs:

1. Pick #1 - 107/27 = 3.96
2. Pick #5 - 58/27 = 2.14
3. Pick #3 - 38/27 = 1.41
4. Pick #2 - 36/27 = 1.33
5. Pick #4 - 35/27 = 1.29
6. Pick #9 - 30/27 = 1.11
7. Pick #13 - 29/27 = 1.07
8. Pick #10 - 23/27 = 0.85
9. Pick #17 - 14/27 = 0.52
10. Pick #7 - 12/27 = 0.44
11. Pick #14 - 11/27 = 0.41
12. Pick #18 - 11/27 = 0.41
13. Pick #6 - 10/27 = 0.37
14. Pick #11 - 10/27 = 0.37
15. Pick #15 - 8/27 = 0.30
16. Pick #24 - 8/27 = 0.30
17. Pick #8 - 7/27 = 0.26
18. Pick #21 - 6/27 = 0.22
19. Pick #25 - 5/27 = 0.18
20. Pick #28 - 4/27 = 0.15
21. Pick #16 - 3/27 = 0.11
22. Pick #20 - 3/27 = 0.11
23. Pick #19 - 2/27 = 0.07
24. Pick #27 - 2/27 = 0.07
25. Pick #12 - 1/27 = 0.04
26. Pick #22 - 1/27 = 0.04
27. Pick #23 - 1/27 = 0.04
28. Pick #26 - 1/27 = 0.04
29. Pick #29 - 1/27 = 0.04
30. Pick #30 - 1/27 = 0.04

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Menu for the 2012 Oscar Party - Dishes for this Years Academy Award Show

In years past as the Oscars approached I would start to fret about what to serve at my party.  I have a bit of a tradition of making a dish based on or inspired by each of the best picture nominees.  Coming up with 5-10 dishes every year is actually harder than it sounds.  Some years your are blessed with movies like The Kings Speech (The King's Peach Cobbler) or The Blind Side (Blind Sliders) and the dishes basically make themselves.  But some years there are difficult films like The Reader (I made "fReaders" a play on potato fritters) or The Fighter (We finally came up with Punch, which was actually a real hit).  What I would have done for ideas from some post on-line to at least give me a hint of an inkling of what to do.  So, here is my post for those looking for menu items for this years nominees (I like to call them "Nom-Noms".  The dishes, not the movies).

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Francophilia and Self Love Alive and Well in Hollywood - A Look at the Years Oscar Nominees

With the Oscars a mere week away, it is time to look at the nominees for Best Picture.  And as we look over the field there is a real continental feel to the movies nominated.  As in North America and Europe.  Save for The Descendants which is based in Hawaii (which, as we know, is in fact a US state) every story comes from one or the other.  Some might argue The Tree of Life is actually based in someone's dream, but they speak English enough to guess it is set in America.

This seems to point to the state of movie making in general.  With the economy still in its recovery, ever increasing ticket prices, and quality content being provided on any number of platforms, people need a good reason to go to the movies.  To attract the public you need to have ingenuity, intrigue, and interest.  The best way to do that is to go with what you know, return to your base (a lesson most often learned in politics, it is an election year after all).  This year there are no tales from exotic far off lands, strange alternate universes, or alien planets.  This years crop are based in well known familiar settings.  That is not to say that there are not elements of the fantastic.

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2012 Consumer Electronics Show - The Gadgets

All right guys, here is the one you have been waiting for: what was the coolest stuff at the 2012 CES?  Well here are a few thoughts, trends, and gadgets groundbreaking and absurd that stood out at the CES.

You're flat screen looks great with that scarf!

- Wireless TVs the next great accessory

As I noted in an earlier post, the lines between different technologies are blurring.  Computer monitors are now nearly as clear as televisions.  Televisions now have wireless and portable capabilities.  Your phone or tablet can act as a remote for any component in the house including turning lights or heating on and off, or even start you car.  Basically what is happening is users are demanding access to data and performance, and there is a race to provide it.  Which means there are legions of people creating technologies, platforms, and apps all tailor made to give the public the easiest and most streamlined answer for any and every issue we have.  Becoming the leader in any little niche is going to be big business.  That means there are many options for users, and it also means many solution providers are not going to make it.  The competition is ongoing, and we will see what ends up being the standard in the future.  But for now, lets enjoy the ride, and revel in the innovation.

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2012 Consumer Electronics Show- The Vehicles



Electric Concept Car- Audi Urban



One of the more surprising aspects of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is the number of automobiles that are on display.  A car is a machine, that needs oil and fuel, and drives in the snow and rain.  Cars are not like computers or TVs right?  Well, actually it is all of the above.  Just ask the thankful parents that never hear "Are we there yet?" from their children happily viewing their favorite programs on seat mounted TVs in the back seat.  The amount of technology and programing that goes in to modern vehicles is staggering and extremely complex.  They truly are computers on wheels.  And in fact unveiling new technologies within an automobile is a great way to garner attention at the CES.

There are a few trends in cars right now.  Voice recognition and activation, and heads up displays are going to be a part the driving experience in the years to come.  These will allow you to make phone calls, listen and reply to emails and texts, and see all functionality of the vehicle all while keeping your eyes on the road.  There are various services and devices that will allow you to do this currently, but these advancements are begining to be baked into new models and concept vehicles, so in the future they will most likely come standard.

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2012 Consumer Electronics Show

Ford EVOS-  Electric Concept Car

Earlier this month I was given the opportunity to go to the International Consumer Electronic Show (CES for short) in Las Vegas.  For those of you who are not familiar, the CES is the show where most of the big name brands roll out their new technologies and updated models of their product suites.  It is the show where you can glimpse into next generation technologies and find trends in mainstream consumer products.  It is the show where everything from $10 headphones to $10,000 personal home servers are on display for all to see.  It is quite simply THE Show.

It is the largest convention of the year in Vegas.  There are nearly 2500 companies presenting, over 15 miles of booths and aisle ways, in 5 huge convention halls.  It over runs the entire Las Vegas convention center and spills over in to The Venitian and The Las Vegas Hilton.  Throughout the whole town surly yet appreciative cabbies line up by what seems like the hundreds just to move the 159,000 industry affiliated attendees from place to place.  Maybe next year they will invent teleportation, but as it stands now it is a huge mangled mess of droves, flocks, and gaggles of people.  All bustling about to see "the next big thing".

The difficulties associated with attempting to take it all in are fairly obvious.  There is simply too much to see in 4 days.  And I am sure there are some fascinating stuff that I just wandered by in a mid-afternoon daze of over-stimulation and malnourishment.  But I will do my best to cover some of the highlights and give you a few thoughts.  First off, some mechanical issues, the CES is simply too large to cover in one blog post, so I am going to cut it up in to a couple different bite sized entries.  Second, I am not an industry technician, so I don't have all the specs, requirements, and analysis of "This" vs "That".  What I do have is a four day experience seeing myriad competing technologies and thoughts and observations of what I saw.   So, without further ado...  Let's get to it!

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