Thursday, June 21, 2012

NBA Draft - What is the best pick to have?

With the NBA Draft Lottery behind us and the actual NBA Draft a few days away I got to thinking.  What are the advantages of one draft pick over another?  Which pick has proved to be the most successful?  Which draft pick do I want for my team based on historical data?  Is there any benefit to winning the NBA Draft Lottery?  So, I started digging.  I went back through each draft since 1985 (the infamous Patrick Ewing lottery) to see just how well each pick has done. 

Comparing draft picks is difficult.  Positions are inherently different.  Scoring points is different than grabbing rebounds or dropping assists.  Teams have different philosophies that might not show off a certain players talents.  Injuries are always a menacing specter.  And of course some guys are simply more hype than talent.  Later picks go to better teams and might not ever get playing time, earlier picks my be pushed too hard too early and never round out before they are discarded.  There is no real good apples-to-apples comparison.  So, I decided to use a unit that is somewhat arbitrary, sometimes outright wrong, but overall is a good way to see how a draft pick panned out: All-Star appearances.  It ain't perfect, but it is as good a benchmark to having the NBA seal of approval as there is out there. 

This is all based off of past numbers, so it is in no way a prediction of how things will go in the future, but it does give us a sense of what is available and what your chances are of picking up a franchise type player.  Combing through the numbers I focused on 3 main questions: What percentage of the time has pick X produced an All-Star (what are the odds of getting an All-Star)?  How many All-Star appearances does pick X average (what should a team expect from their pick position)?  What pick has the most bang for the buck (what pick has had the best outcome IF a team does get an All-Star with that pick)?
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NBA Draft - Draft Pick All-Star Rate

This is a statistical view of how often a certain pick in the NBA Draft has produced an All-Star.  Starting with the first NBA Draft Lottery in 1985, the top-30 picks (not always first round picks some have been added through expansion over the years) have been counted and divided over time (27 years).  Ties were given to lower draft picks because of the value associated with picking later (i.e. later picks have a lower pay scale which is an advantage to the team's salary cap).  Here is the full list by All-Star Rate (ASR):
  1. Pick #1 - 18/27 - 67%
  2. Pick #3 - 12/27 - 44%
  3. Pick #5 - 10/27 - 37%
  4. Pick #4 - 10/27 - 37%
  5. Pick #2 - 9/27 - 33%
  6. Pick #10 - 6/27 - 22%
  7. Pick #9 - 6/27 - 22%
  8. Pick #6 - 6/27 - 22%
  9. Pick #18 - 5/27 - 19%
  10. Pick #24 - 4/27 - 15%
  11. Pick #17 - 4/27 - 15%
  12. Pick #11 - 4/27 - 15%
  13. Pick #7 - 4/27 - 15%
  14. Pick #21 - 3/27 - 11%
  15. Pick #16 - 3/27 - 11%
  16. Pick #14 - 3/27 - 11%
  17. Pick #13 - 3/27 - 11%
  18. Pick #25 - 2/27 - 7%
  19. Pick #20 - 2/27 - 7%
  20. Pick #19 - 2/27 - 7%
  21. Pick #8 - 2/27 - 7%
  22. Pick # 30 - 1/27 - 4%
  23. Pick #29 - 1/27 - 4%
  24. Pick #28 - 1/27 - 4%
  25. Pick #27 - 1/27 - 4%
  26. Pick #26 - 1/27 - 4%
  27. Pick #23 - 1/27 - 4%
  28. Pick #22 - 1/27 - 4%
  29. Pick #15 - 1/27 - 4%
  30. Pick #12 - 1/27 - 4%
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NBA Draft - Which Pick Has the Most All-Star Appearances

This is a list breaking out how many All-Star Appearances (APAs) each draft pick has averaged since the first NBA Draft Lottery in 1985.  Think of it as the potency of a certain draft pick.  How many APAs on average do those draft picks end up bringing to a team.  So, Pick #1 with an average of 3.96 means a team picking in that position should expect (according to historical statistics) around 4 ASAs from their new draftee.  This is the list according to average ASAs:
  1. Pick #1 - 107/27 = 3.96
  2. Pick #5 - 58/27 = 2.14
  3. Pick #3 - 38/27 = 1.41
  4. Pick #2 - 36/27 = 1.33
  5. Pick #4 - 35/27 = 1.29
  6. Pick #9 - 30/27 = 1.11
  7. Pick #13 - 29/27 = 1.07
  8. Pick #10 - 23/27 = 0.85
  9. Pick #17 - 14/27 = 0.52
  10. Pick #7 - 12/27 = 0.44
  11. Pick #14 - 11/27 = 0.41
  12. Pick #18 - 11/27 = 0.41
  13. Pick #6 - 10/27 = 0.37
  14. Pick #11 - 10/27 = 0.37
  15. Pick #15 - 8/27 = 0.30
  16. Pick #24 - 8/27 = 0.30
  17. Pick #8 - 7/27 = 0.26
  18. Pick #21 - 6/27 = 0.22
  19. Pick #25 - 5/27 = 0.18
  20. Pick #28 - 4/27 = 0.15
  21. Pick #16 - 3/27 = 0.11
  22. Pick #20 - 3/27 = 0.11
  23. Pick #19 - 2/27 = 0.07
  24. Pick #27 - 2/27 = 0.07
  25. Pick #12 - 1/27 = 0.04
  26. Pick #22 - 1/27 = 0.04
  27. Pick #23 - 1/27 = 0.04
  28. Pick #26 - 1/27 = 0.04
  29. Pick #29 - 1/27 = 0.04
  30. Pick #30 - 1/27 = 0.04
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NBA Draft - Which Pick has the Most Bang for the Buck?

This list shows which draft picks garner the most All-Star Appearances (ASAs) assuming the pick does in fact end up being an All-Star.  For example, in the 27 years since the Draft Lottery began the #13 pick has had 3 All-Stars.  Now, two of those All-Stars are Kobe Bryant and Karl Malone, who have had 14 ASAs each.  Throw in Dale Davis' 2000 ASA, and the #13 pick has 29 total ASAs.  Discounting the 24 years that the #13 pick didn't result in an All-Star you get 29/3 = 9.67.  So, the times that a team has in fact drafted an All-Star at the #13 pick, they got 9.67 ASAs out of them.  It is sort of a nonsense stat, but it is kind of fun to think about.  When debating how valuable one draft pick is over another, it is nice to know that twice a perennial All-Star and Hall-of-Famer was picked with, say, the 13th pick.  We get this from dividing total number of ASAs from each pick by the total number of All-Stars.  So which picks offer the best bang for the buck?

  1. Pick #13 - 29/3 - 9.67 - Karl Malone (14), Kobe Bryant (14)
  2. Pick # 15 - 8/1 - 8.00 - All from Steve Nash
  3. Pick #1 - 18/107 - 5.94 - Shaq (15)
  4. Pick #5 - 58/10 - 5.80 - Kevin Garnett (14)
  5. Pick #9 - 30/6 - 5.00 - Dirk Nowitzki (11)
  6. Pick #2 - 36/9 - 4.00 - Jason Kidd (10), Gary Payton (9)
  7. Pick #28 - 4/1 - 4.00 - All From Tony Parker
  8. Pick #10 - 23/6 - 3.83 - Paul Pierce (10)
  9. Pick #14 - 11/3 - 3.67 - Tim Hardaway (5)
  10. Pick #4 - 35/10 - 3.50 - Dikembe Mutombo (8), Chris Bosh (7)
  11. Pick #17 - 14/4 - 3.50 - Jermaine O'Neal (6), Shawn Kemp (6)
  12. Pick #8 - 7/2 - 3.50 - Detlef Schrempf (3), Vin Baker (4)
  13. Pick #3 - 38/12 - 3.17 - Grant Hill (7)
  14. Pick #7 - 12/4 - 3.00 - Chris Mullen (5)
  15. Pick #11 - 10/4 - 2.50 - Reggie Miller (5)
  16. Pick #25 - 5/2 - 2.50 - Mark Price (4) (second round pick)
  17. Pick #18 - 11/5 - 2.20 - Joe Dumars (6)
  18. Pick #24 - 8/4 - 2.00 - Latrell Spreewell (4)
  19. Pick #21 - 6/3 - 2.00 - Rajon Rondo (3)
  20. Pick #27 - 2/1 - 2.00 - All from Dennis Rodman (second round pick)
  21. Pick #6 - 10/6 - 1.67 - Antoine Walker (3), Brandon Roy (3)
  22. Pick #20 - 3/2 - 1.50 - Zydrunas Ilgauskas (2)
  23. Pick #16 - 3/3 - 1.00 - Dana Barros, Chris Gatling, Ron Artest
  24. Pick #19 - 2/2 - 1.00 - Jamaal Magloire, Zach Randolph
  25. Pick #12 - 1/1 -1.00 - Mookie Blaylock
  26. Pick #22 - 1/1 - 1.00 - Reggie Lewis
  27. Pick #23 - 1/1 - 1.00 - A.C. Green
  28. Pick #26 - 1/1 - 1.00 - Vlade Divac
  29. Pick #29 - 1/1 - 1.00 - Josh Howard
  30. Pick #30 - 1/1 - 1.00 - David Lee
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